Conference Board says AI’s job impact will depend on tasks and location

The Conference Board published a new report on 5 October arguing that AI will not produce a uniform global pattern of job destruction. Its analysis says the effect will depend on the occupation, the tasks involved and the location, with AI capable of both transforming work and disrupting business models.

The report, *AI: Savior or Destroyer of Global Labor Markets?*, frames adoption as a workforce and business-model issue rather than a simple headcount forecast. That distinction matters for employers deciding whether technology changes a role, removes a role or creates different work.

TD Economics similarly concludes that generative AI is more likely to transform jobs than eliminate them outright, depending on reliable performance, cost and adoption. Its high-adoption scenarios still project a possible 0.7-to-1.4 percentage-point rise in unemployment by the early 2030s, with greater exposure in data and information processing.

S&P Global reports that businesses are prioritising productivity and revenue gains over headcount reduction, although its 2026 assessment finds a modestly negative net employment impact globally and a stronger effect in manufacturing and large enterprises.

For owners, the practical test is task-level evidence: document what the technology changes, identify genuinely redundant work, and assess redeployment before deciding positions are no longer required. Consult affected employees before the decision is final, and keep the restructure focused on the changed work rather than using AI as a blanket justification for dismissals.