ILO and World Bank Find GenAI Exposure Is Highest in Rich Economies
A 2026 joint working paper says GenAI exposure reaches roughly 30–32% of jobs in high-income countries, compared with about 15% in low-income economies.
A joint ILO–World Bank analysis says GenAI is likely to reshape work unevenly worldwide. About 30–32% of jobs in high-income countries are exposed to generative AI, compared with roughly 15% in low-income countries, according to the 2026 working paper covered on 5 October.
Globally, around 17% of jobs fall into a moderate-exposure category, where AI is more likely to augment work than replace it. The analysis says digital access and adoption gaps will influence the effect, with advanced economies seeing faster productivity gains and more targeted disruption.
The findings complement S&P Global’s 2026 assessment that businesses are prioritising productivity and efficiency over headcount reductions. Its measure of employment impact turned modestly negative globally over the previous 12 months, at net minus five percentage points.
What employers should do
For an Australian employer, exposure is not itself a redundancy decision. Map which duties genuinely disappear or materially change, consult affected employees before deciding, and test suitable redeployment or retraining options. If roles are ultimately removed, document the business rationale and ensure the process supports a genuine redundancy rather than using AI adoption as a label for a predetermined dismissal.
- GenAI exposure is estimated at 30–32% of jobs in high-income countries and about 15% in low-income countries.
- About 17% of jobs globally are in moderate exposure, where augmentation is more likely than replacement.
- Digital access and adoption gaps are expected to make AI’s labour-market effects uneven.
- S&P Global says AI adoption is currently prioritising productivity and efficiency, while global employment impact has turned modestly negative.
For employers: Treat AI exposure as a workforce-planning signal, not automatic grounds for dismissal: identify genuinely disappearing duties, consult before deciding, and assess redeployment or retraining before finalising any redundancy.
Sources: GenAI to reshape global jobs, but impact will be uneven: ILO · The AI and labor landscape 2026
General information for employers, not legal advice. Reporting summarised from the linked sources; confirm details with the primary source.