McKinsey forecasts 11 million US workers may need new occupations

McKinsey Global Institute estimates that about 11 million US workers may need to change occupations by 2035 as AI and automation reshape labour demand. Its September 29 report puts the annual need for cross-occupation moves at roughly 770,000—3.6 times the historical average.

The report’s base case projects AI and automation could reduce labour demand by around 36 million jobs, while economic growth creates about 41 million. Shrinking roles are concentrated in office and administrative support, retail and sales, and transportation and logistics. Healthcare, construction and management are among the areas expected to grow.

Lower-wage workers are 7.6 times more likely than higher-wage workers to need a new occupation, McKinsey found. The Conference Board separately said AI could produce very different workforce outcomes depending on the speed of adoption, while broad employment effects remain limited so far.

For employers planning an AI restructure, treat projected productivity gains as a work-design question before a headcount decision. Map which duties are genuinely removed, identify suitable redeployment and training options, and retain evidence that any role loss—not simply an employee’s use of a new system—drives the outcome. In Australia, consult before deciding, assess redeployment and ensure any redundancy is genuine.