McKinsey says 11 million US workers may need new occupations
AI and automation could force roughly 7% of the US workforce to change occupations by 2035, the institute says.
A new McKinsey Global Institute report estimates that about 11 million US workers may need to change occupations by 2035 because of AI and automation. Its estimate ranges from 6 million to 16 million workers, or roughly 7% of the workforce.
The report identifies office and administrative support, retail and sales, and transportation and logistics as the areas containing more than 75% of workers expected to need occupational transitions. Customer service representatives, retail sales associates, cashiers and warehouse workers are among the examples cited.
McKinsey says automation could reduce labour demand equivalent to about 36 million jobs, while broader economic growth—including demand created by the AI value chain—could generate more than 40 million jobs. Healthcare, professional and technical services, construction, and management are identified as growth areas.
The scale of movement would be substantial: around 770,000 occupational transitions a year, compared with roughly 215,000 historically. Lower-wage workers are estimated to be 7.6 times more likely to need a new occupation.
For employers, the report reinforces the need to assess which tasks—not just job titles—AI will change. In an Australian restructure, document the operational reason for any role reduction, consult before deciding, and test genuine redeployment into available work before treating redundancy as the outcome.
- McKinsey estimates 11 million US workers may need to change occupations by 2035 due to AI and automation.
- Office support, retail and sales, and transport and logistics account for more than 75% of projected occupational transitions.
- The report estimates about 770,000 occupational transitions annually would be needed, versus roughly 215,000 historically.
- Healthcare, professional and technical services, construction, and management are identified as growth areas.
For employers: Assess AI’s effect on tasks and document the business rationale before removing roles. For Australian restructures, consult affected employees before deciding, and actively consider genuine redeployment into suitable available work.
Sources: Workforce in motion: Skills and pathways to future jobs in the United States · AI May Force 11 Million Workers Into New Jobs, McKinsey Says · McKinsey AI Automation Workers Career Transitions 2035
General information for employers, not legal advice. Reporting summarised from the linked sources; confirm details with the primary source.