McKinsey says AI could force 11 million US workers to change occupations
A new McKinsey report projects major workforce transitions by 2035, while stressing collaboration rather than outright replacement.
McKinsey estimates that about 11 million US workers—roughly 7% of the workforce—may need to change occupations by 2035 because of AI displacement. The report gives a range of 6 million to 16 million and says the shift could triple historical annual transition rates.
Office and administrative support, retail and sales, and transportation and logistics workers are among the groups most exposed. Low-income workers are expected to face disproportionate effects. McKinsey says around 57% of US work hours have theoretical automation potential, but stresses that this is not a forecast of job losses.
The report argues that “skill partnerships” between people and AI could deliver up to $2.9 trillion in annual US value by 2030. Its findings align with McKinsey’s August survey, in which 39% of organisations expected AI-related workforce declines in the following year, up from 32% previously.
What employers should do
Owners planning an AI-led restructure should first document the changed work and assess whether roles genuinely disappear, rather than selecting people before deciding the business change. They should consult affected employees before final decisions, test suitable redeployment and retraining options, and keep records supporting any genuine redundancy conclusion.
- McKinsey projects that about 11 million US workers may need to change occupations by 2035 due to AI displacement.
- The report estimates 6 million to 16 million workers could be affected.
- Office support, retail and sales, and transportation and logistics are among the most exposed groups.
- McKinsey says 57% of US work hours have theoretical automation potential, not that 57% of jobs will disappear.
- Thirty-nine percent of organisations expected AI-related workforce declines in the coming year, according to McKinsey’s August survey.
For employers: For an AI restructure, define the changed work first, consult before deciding who is affected, assess genuine redeployment and retraining options, and document why any remaining role loss is a genuine redundancy.
Sources: AI may force 11 million US workers into new jobs, McKinsey says · The State of AI
General information for employers, not legal advice. Reporting summarised from the linked sources; confirm details with the primary source.