SHRM estimates 7.9 million US jobs face high displacement risk
SHRM’s 2026 analysis finds automation exposure remains broad, but the highest-risk share of US employment is smaller than the wider pool affected by AI.
A new SHRM analysis estimates that about 7.9 million US jobs—5.1% of employment—face a high risk of displacement from automation and AI. Its broader measure finds roughly 31.1 million jobs, or 20% of US employment, are at least 50% automated.
The report also identifies AI as a leading driver of some 2026 job cuts, citing Challenger data. It distinguishes exposure from confirmed job loss: the US Bureau of Labor Statistics says high or very high AI exposure does not necessarily mean an occupation will decline.
That distinction matters as adoption spreads beyond routine clerical work. Goldman Sachs Research estimates AI substitution is reducing US employment by about 16,000 jobs a month on a net basis, while BCG projects that 50–55% of US jobs could be reshaped over the next two to three years and 10–15% eliminated over five years.
For employers, the practical test is role redesign, not an AI label. Before proposing redundancies, document which duties technology removes, assess whether the remaining work creates a genuinely different role, consult affected employees before deciding, and test reasonable redeployment or reskilling options. In Australia, a technology-driven restructure still needs to meet genuine-redundancy requirements and any applicable consultation obligations.
- SHRM estimates 20% of US employment, about 31.1 million jobs, is at least 50% automated.
- The report estimates 5.1% of US employment, about 7.9 million jobs, faces high displacement risk.
- BLS cautions that high AI exposure does not necessarily imply job loss.
- Goldman Sachs and BCG both forecast significant AI-driven job reshaping, with more limited near-term net displacement.
For employers: Use task-level evidence to establish whether technology genuinely removes a role; consult before deciding and assess redeployment or reskilling so any Australian redundancy remains genuine and lawful.
Sources: Automation, AI, and Job Displacement Risk in U.S. Employment (2026 Edition) · Artificial Intelligence (AI) exposure categories · AI Will Reshape More Jobs Than It Replaces · The jobs AI is likely to boost—and those it may disrupt
General information for employers, not legal advice. Reporting summarised from the linked sources; confirm details with the primary source.