SIEPR finds AI has yet to cause broad job losses
A new Stanford policy brief says overall employment effects remain small, although new graduates face a tougher labour market.
Broad job losses have not yet appeared. A Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research policy brief published on 25 September says overall employment effects from artificial intelligence remain small, with unemployment rising at similar rates across occupations with different levels of AI exposure.
The brief says new graduates are facing a tougher labour market, which may be partly related to AI. It does not establish that AI is the sole cause of weaker entry-level hiring.
The findings contrast with more disruptive forecasts. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics has created four AI-exposure categories for occupations, but stresses that exposure does not mean a job will be lost. A 2026 SHRM survey estimated that 5.1% of U.S. jobs face high displacement risk after accounting for non-technical barriers such as client preferences.
For employers, the evidence supports testing whether AI changes tasks before treating exposure as proof that a role is redundant.
- SIEPR reported small overall employment effects from AI.
- Unemployment has risen similarly across different levels of AI exposure.
- New graduates face a tougher labour market, possibly partly because of AI.
- BLS says occupational AI exposure does not automatically mean job loss.
- SHRM estimated 5.1% of U.S. jobs face high displacement risk.
For employers: For an Australian restructure, document the specific tasks AI removes or changes and why fewer roles are genuinely required. Consult affected employees before deciding, properly assess redeployment into remaining or redesigned work, and ensure any dismissal meets genuine-redundancy requirements rather than relying on an occupation’s AI-exposure label.
Sources: What is really happening to jobs? Separating AI hype from reality · Artificial Intelligence (AI) exposure categories · 2026 Automation/AI Survey: Automation and AI and Job Displacement Risk in U.S. Employment
General information for employers, not legal advice. Reporting summarised from the linked sources; confirm details with the primary source.